DRUG TRAFFICKING
IN CENTRAL ASIA, ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ROUTES
ANANTHU S S
MA INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS , University of Madras
Central Asia is one of the
primary transit regions of the international drug trade acting as the staging
area for opiate exports out of Afghanistan. This region mostly feeds the
northern route through Russia and very peripherally the southern route through
Iran and the Balkans. While 4 of the five countries here seem to follow a set
and well known pattern in the drug trade - one country Turkmenistan seems to
buck the trend.
The Northern Route
Tajikistan is the main hub of the
northern drug route which runs from Afghanistan through Russia. The Afghan-Tajik
border due to its extremely challenging topography & climate is very
difficult to police and therefore easy for traffickers to access. UNODC estimated in 2011 around 105 tons of
opiates transited through Tajikistan annually. Of this only 1.64% was seized.
This inefficacy of border controls and susceptibility to corruption is
reflected in the Economist's 2012
investigation that reported that the drug trafficking economy is equal to 30-50%
of Tajikistan’s GDP. Combined with bad discipline and bad salaries this
provides a very powerful rationale for co-opting the system. After Tajikistan -
Uzbekistan is the second stopover point for drugs transiting on the northern
route. Uzbekistan in 2010 seized around 0.97% (1004 kg) of the total transit. This
despite the UNDOC in 2012 claiming that
Uzbekistan had higher salaries and better monitoring than any of the other
states. Kyrgyzstan with the lowest per capita income in the region also has the
lowest drug seizure rates of 0.7% of total transit. Kazakhstan is the natural accumulation
point for the opiates that transit through Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan
into Russia. Kazakhstan seized a mere 0.87% of total transitory drugs.
Of the total of 105
tons that transits through Central Asia every year - only 90 tons get through
to Russia. This means that Central Asia alone retains and consumes an extremely
high proportion almost 15 tons of the opiates that transit through. This has
massive social costs involved and some governments such as Turkmenistan
actually discontinuing reporting in 2006. Similarly statistics such as Uzbekistan’s
- showing a decline in registered users from 9.8 per million population to 3.8 being
suspect given the retention rate in the region. Kazakhstan for example 12.4% of
teenagers and a full 1.02% of the adult population are drug addicts with the
youngest registered user being 5 years old. Some of the most alarming estimates
- though unofficial - indicate that a staggering 1.8% of the Kyrgyz population
are addicted to opiates.
The Southern Route.
Turkmenistan unlike Tajikistan is a minor hub
of the southern route which runs from Afghanistan to Iran and further on trough
the Balkans accounting for slightly over 300 tons. However most of the drugs on
this southern route pass through Iran with Turkmenistan only accounting for 4-5
tons of the total volume on this route. Consequently total volumes and the
relative seizure rate very high for the region. For example in 2014, 4.65%
(186.7 kg) of transitory drugs were seized though this was a significant
decline from the previous year of 11% (440.7 kg) seizure of 2013.
This is
particularly surprising given how long the Turkmenistan borders with
Afghanistan and Iran act as a natural conduit. Furthermore, the fact it has a
coastline on the Caspian with direct access to Russia would mean that smugglers
onto the northern route would only face 3 sets of border controls (Afghanistan,
Turkmenistan and either Russia, or Azerbaijan).
Turkmenistan also provides the best option for those looking to bypass
the increasingly frantic efforts by Iran to crack down on the trade. However
thus far despite its excellent geographic location for drug trade facilitation,
Turkmenistan has bucked the regional trend.
This anomaly
becomes even more acute when economics are factored in. Assuming that salaries
and training were linked to Per Capita income, Turkmenistan has the second
highest after Kazakhstan in the region. Yet, while significantly richer Kazakhstan
has far greater problems with managing drug transit across the board - ingress
access and retention - Turkmenistan does not seem to be facing this problem.
What we do know
however is that Turkmenistan has a massive drug addiction problem. The
estimates for this are almost impossible to come by given how little
information is published by this unusually repressive (even by regional
standards) state. There have been several public declarations for eradicating
the drug menace from right at the top - the president. This leads to several
conclusions. First that there is a clear ingress of significant quantities of
drugs into Turkmenistan and a high retention rate that is to say the drugs that
are trafficked into Turkmenistan are mostly for the use of the Turkmens themselves.
This is highly unlikely given the profits to be made in transit. Equally it
could also imply that Turkmenistan is in fact quite prominent on both northern
and southern routes but that there is significant collusion of state
authorities in avoiding detection, or that the repressive measures of the
regime in general have a significantly beneficial effect in controlling the
trade.
Irrespective what
stands out is that Turkmenistan is an anomaly in the regional drug trade route
and certainly merits far closer study if the Central Asian Transit route is to
be tackled more effectively.
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